# Epic Universe Needs to Let the Locals in

The Turnstile Report, Edition No. 1, Summer 2026. Michael Starlane, Celebration, FL.

Disney figures are fiscal Q3 2026. Comcast and United Parks figures are calendar Q2 2026. Comcast reports theme parks as one global segment, so Osaka and Hollywood sit inside every Comcast figure. Neither Disney nor Comcast reports Orlando as a separate line item, so any Orlando-specific reading is an inference.

## Dataset

| Metric | Company | Period | Value | Note | Sources |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Adjusted EBITDA, theme parks | Comcast | Q2 2026 | $609M | Below the $619M earned in Q2 2024, before Epic existed | 03, 04 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin, theme parks | Comcast | Q2 2024 | 31.3% | Global parks segment, includes Osaka and Hollywood | 03, 04 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin, theme parks | Comcast | Q2 2025 | 27.3% | Partial-opening quarter of Epic Universe | 03, 04 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin, theme parks | Comcast | Q2 2026 | 25.2% | First quarter comping against Epic | 03, 04 |
| Costs, year over year | Comcast | Q2 2026 | +5.7% | Global parks segment | 03 |
| Profit, year over year | Comcast | Q2 2026 | -5.1% | CFO attributes the decline primarily to Osaka | 05 |
| Reported spend on Epic Universe | Comcast | 2024-2026 | $6-7B | Reported over roughly two years | 10 |
| Attendance published | Comcast | Q2 2026 | None | Universal publishes no attendance number | 03 |
| Domestic attendance | Disney | Fiscal Q3 2026 | +3% | Powered by domestic tourists, passholders and summer promotions | 01 |
| Per-guest spending | Disney | Fiscal Q3 2026 | +4% | Alongside a local and value offer stack | 01 |
| Florida resident ticket | Disney | Summer 2026 | $65 | Florida resident days; rooms from $99; four parks from $99 a day | 15 |
| Attendance | United Parks | Q2 2026 | 6.06M | Down 2.9%; the only operator here publishing attendance | 06 |
| Admission spending per guest | United Parks | Q2 2026 | -1.8% | The discount happens at the turnstile | 06 |
| In-park spending per guest | United Parks | Q2 2026 | $39.51 | Up 5.1%, another quarterly record | 06 |
| Passholder share of attendance | United Parks | Q2 2026 | about 40% | Per CEO Marc Swanson | 06 |
| Revenue | United Parks | Q2 2026 | -1.4% | Proof of the mechanism, not of prosperity | 06 |
| Profit | United Parks | Q2 2026 | -5.2% | Proof of the mechanism, not of prosperity | 06 |
| Crowd index, Epic Universe | Queue-Times | Summer 2026 | 46 | Against 67 last year; May at 29. Third-party estimate, flagged noisy | - |
| Passholder day ticket discount | Universal | Summer 2026 | up to 40% | By Universal's own advertising | - |
| Universal Nights ticket | Universal | October 2026 | $179 | After-hours event with a 10% passholder discount | 08 |
| Annual pass access to Epic Universe | Universal | As of this report | $0 available | No annual pass access at any price | 09 |
| Airfare, year over year | BLS CPI | June 2026 | +26.5% | All types | 12, 18 |
| Gasoline, year over year | BLS CPI | June 2026 | +26.7% | Gas peaked at $4.56 on May 21 | 12 |

## The Gate Check No. 1

| Claim | Who said it | What the data says | Grade |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| "Attendance across the broader Orlando market began to soften in June" | Cavanagh, Comcast | The county hotel tax streak did break in June: direction confirmed. But the streak began the month Epic opened, June 2025 was the comp Epic itself created, and SeaWorld's CEO says Orlando outperformed his other markets | Half true |
| Softness driven by "higher fuel prices and weaker consumer sentiment" | Cavanagh, Comcast | Gas peaked May 21 and fell through June and July. Sentiment rose in June and July. Card spend on airlines and leisure hit four-year highs. The cost levels were real; the June timing was not | Busted on timing, half true on level |
| "Epic Universe continues to perform well" | Cavanagh, Comcast | Crowd index 46 percent versus 67 last year, May at 29, September hours cut, passholder day tickets cut up to 40 percent by Universal's own advertising. Per-guest spending elevated | Jury's still out |
| "We’re performing significantly better than our competition" | D'Amaro, Disney | True on profits as each company defines them, up 20 versus down 5.1, and backed by outside proxies. Unfalsifiable in detail, because Universal discloses no attendance | True, conveniently unfalsifiable |
| "We’re certainly not discounting our way to volume growth" | D'Amaro, Disney | Deepest Walt Disney World discount stack since roughly 2019. Disney's own letter credits “summer promotions.” A new discount ticket launched August 3, after the quarter closed. Fair enough on per caps. But Disney is absolutely using discounts as a weapon, and that is the part Universal should copy | Busted |
| "Forward bookings at Walt Disney World remain robust" | Disney shareholder letter | The October 31 Halloween party sold out before 9am on day one, a record. Fall discount depth is flat year over year with room rates up. Vacation club resale prices held | Confirmed |
| "Adjusting for these impacts, attendance would have been flat" | Swanson, United Parks | The bridge from minus 2.9 to flat cannot be rebuilt from anything disclosed. Calendar-neutral six-month attendance is minus 3.6 percent, worse than either quarter alone | Unfalsifiable |
| Osaka, not Orlando, is the primary profit drag | Armstrong, Comcast | Consistent with the geography commentary in the filings, unquantifiable from anything published, and almost every headline ignored it | Plausible, undercovered |

## The bet

Universal capitulates and offers the Epic annual pass add-on by Q1 2027, one quarter earlier than the published Spring 2027 consensus.

## Sources

1. The Walt Disney Company, "Q3 FY26 Shareholder Letter," August 5, 2026. https://s206.q4cdn.com/979796730/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/q3-fy26-earnings.pdf
2. Walt Disney World Press Room, "New Summer Florida Resident Disney Ticket," May 14, 2026; Disney Tourist Blog on $99 rooms and the 4-Park Magic ticket. https://disneyexperiences.com/disneyworld-press/release/new-summer-florida-resident-disney-ticket/
3. Tom Bricker, "2026 Disneyland California Park Hopper Ticket Deal (Ended Early!)," Disney Tourist Blog, April 2, 2026. https://www.disneytouristblog.com/2026-disneyland-california-over-50-off-park-hopper-ticket-deal/
4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Consumer Price Index — June 2026," July 14, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm
5. Scripps News, "US airfares are at their highest in years as the Iran war shocks oil and energy prices," June 24, 2026. https://www.scrippsnews.com/life/travel/us-airfares-are-at-their-highest-in-years-as-the-iran-war-shocks-oil-and-energy-prices
6. TouringPlans, "Everything You Need to Know About Cool Kid Summer 2026," January 5, 2026. https://touringplans.com/blog/everything-you-need-to-know-about-cool-kid-summer-2026/
7. Comcast Corporation, Q2 2026 Earnings Release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), July 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000162828026049274/ex991-6302026.htm
8. Comcast Corporation, "Trending Schedules." https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/b269b35e-94ff-43d2-8f05-858c92bb7488
9. Comcast Corporation, Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript. https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/8a2ae730-efbd-41c5-a2a9-b96aef03ced2
10. United Parks & Resorts Inc., "United Parks & Resorts Inc. Reports Second Quarter and First Six Months 2026 Results," August 4, 2026. https://www.unitedparksinvestors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/United-Parks--Resorts-Inc--Reports-Second-Quarter-and-First-Six-Months-2026-Results/default.aspx
11. SeaWorld, "SeaWorld Launches 2026 Annual Pass With Best Benefits Ever," PR Newswire, September 25, 2025. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/seaworld-launches-2026-annual-pass-with-best-benefits-ever-unlimited-visits-exclusive-perks-and-first-access-to-record-setting-new-attractions-302566745.html
12. Universal Orlando Resort, "Universal Nights." https://www.universalorlando.com/web/en/us/things-to-do/events/universal-nights
13. Universal Orlando Resort, "Annual Passes — Epic Universe Products Help." https://www.universalorlando.com/web/en/us/tickets-packages/annual-passes/epic-products-help
14. Tom Bricker, "When Will Epic Universe Have Annual Passes?" Disney Tourist Blog, March 24, 2026. https://www.disneytouristblog.com/epic-universe-annual-pass-universal-orlando-2027/
15. Disney Tourist Blog on the record Halloween party sellout; United Parks Q2 2026 release on Howl-O-Scream forward bookings; Attractions Magazine, August 4, 2026. https://www.disneytouristblog.com/highest-priced-date-of-2026-mickeys-not-so-scary-halloween-party-sells-out-in-record-time-again/
16. Inside the Magic, "Universal HHN 2026 Tickets," July 2026. https://insidethemagic.net/2026/07/universal-hhn-tickets-2026-emd1/
17. The Walt Disney Company, "Q3 FY26 Earnings Call Transcript," August 5, 2026. https://s206.q4cdn.com/979796730/files/doc_events/2026/Aug/05/q3-fy26-earnings-transcript.pdf
18. Fortune, "Epic Universe: What to Expect," May 22, 2025; Sarah Whitten, "Epic Universe opens as Universal leans into parks, takes on Disney," CNBC, May 22, 2025. https://fortune.com/2025/05/22/epic-universe-theme-park-rides-attractions-hotels-what-to-expect-ride/
19. NPR, "Spirit Airlines ceases operations and folds," May 2, 2026. https://www.npr.org/2026/05/02/nx-s1-5807933/spirit-airlines-ceases-operations-folds
20. Alicia Stella (@AliciaStella), post on X, June 6, 2026. https://x.com/AliciaStella/status/2063392389910138956

Research and commentary, not investment advice. CC BY 4.0.